Macroeconomy and public finances

The main focus of public finance research is on issues related to the funding of social security and the division of labour between the private and public sectors. Economic policy is analysed with an emphasis on, the sustainability of public finances and the creation and evaluation of related operational strategies. From a macroeconomic perspective, the group studies the development of both the Finnish economy as a whole and the overall global economy and their effects on Finnish business life.

Role and sustainability of public finances
Economic growth
Green transition and climate change
Social security and taxation
International economic development and economic forecasts

Personnel of the research group

Kuusi, Tero

Research Director

tero.kuusi@etla.fi

041 444 8144

Macroeconomics, fiscal policy, Productivity...

Valkonen, Tarmo

Research Advisor

tarmo.valkonen@etla.fi

+358 50 3296014

Financing of social security...

Ropponen, Olli

Chief Research Scientist

olli.ropponen@etla.fi

044 465 0193

econometrics, international corporate taxation...

Puonti, Päivi

Head of forecasting

paivi.puonti@etla.fi

044 465 0177

Monetary policy, fiscal policy...

Berg-Andersson, Birgitta

Researcher

birgitta.berg-andersson@etla.fi

044 465 0153

Exports, imports, industrial production

Kaitila, Ville

Researcher

ville.kaitila@etla.fi

+358 50 4101012

Private consumption, trade, productivity

Lähdemäki, Sakari

Researcher

sakari.lahdemaki@etla.fi

040 746 2991

Macroeconomics, productivity, industry and...

Kauppi, Eija

Planner

eija.kauppi@etla.fi

040 550 6113

Rahko, Jaakko

Research Assistant

jaakko.rahko@etla.fi

Selected research

Research began 2024 Research ends 2026

Forecasting the Finnish tax reform

The project widens the impact assessments of taxation to the tax system. The clearest lack of knowledge is the empirical literature's focus on the short-term effects of marginal taxes (forgetting the longer-term, broader effects. With the help of research,

Research began 2024 Research ends 2024

Renewal of economic forecasting and monitoring activities

This research project aims to renew ETLA's forecasting and monitoring activities. As part of the renewal, old forecasting tools are being modernized, and the updating of the forecasting team's publications will continue. With this renewal, the work of the

Research began 2024 Research ends 2024

Costs of disability

In this research project, the costs caused by sick leaves during the period of 2019–2021 are examined, along with the connections between measures to support work ability and the development of sick leave and its costs. The work package

Research began 2023 Research ends 2024

Green business in flux

This project examines the environmental products and services offered by Finnish companies. In addition, trade barriers that may have an impact on the market success of Finnish products and solutions are mapped in export countries. The project also assesses

Research began 2023 Research ends 2024

Economic instruments and market-oriented solutions in the circular economy

Sustainable development and a carbon-neutral society are built on new products and solutions that derive from the circular economy. In addition, solutions in the circular economy are also expected to create new types of business opportunities for Finnish companies.

Research began 2023 Research ends 2024

An evaluation of COVID-19 business support policies

This research project studies the effects of business subsidies intended to support companies during COVID-19 pandemic. It compares the goals of these subsidiaries to their performance, and thereby their success. It also studies the effects of COVID-19 business support

Research began 2021 Research ends 2024

Life course and economic implications of demographic change (LIFECON)

This research project provides a broad understanding of the causes, consequences and solutions related to population ageing. It examines various phases of the individual life course, including family formation, working life and health and care at the end of

Research began 2022 Research ended 2023

The carbon competitiveness of Finnish production and its development

The aim of this research project is to better understand the development of emission intensity (greenhouse gas emissions/value added) in different industries, to examine Finland’s carbon competitiveness in the European context, and to use this information to prepare more

Research began 2022 Research ended 2023

Operation and development needs of the public finance framework system

The aim of this research project is to produce information about the framework system. The project draws up a vision of what kind of development needs can be seen in Finland's framework system and what concrete actions could be

Research began 2022 Research ended 2022

Public debt and productivity growth

The number of production investments in relation to the size of the economy has fallen in Finland since the 1990s. One explanatory factor is the reduction of the size of the business sector as the share of the business

Research began 2022 Research ended 2022

EU’s Fiscal Framework – identified shortcomings and proposed remedies

In February 2020, the European Commission presented its Communication reviewing the EU’s Economic gov-ernance framework. The revision of the framework will be undertaken by the EU’s Member States. The re-view includes an assessment of how the EU’s fiscal rules

Research began 2021 Research ended 2023

Finnish companies in the vortex of international tax reforms

The current international corporate tax system has largely been considered outdated and at the end of its lifespan. The main reason behind the need for reform stems from the basic structure of the system, which was designed a hundred

Research began 2021 Research ended 2021

Public debt and economic growth

Recent statistics on both explicit and hidden government debt in Finland and other EU countries give cause for taking the issue of high levels of public debt raise seriously. The topic is particularly relevant for Finland today as the

Research began 2020 Research ended 2023

Life insurance deficit and coronavirus

The aim of this research project is to produce a careful description of the loss of income caused by the death of a family parent, the protection provided by social security against loss of income and the need for

Research began 2021 Research ended 2023

The macroeconomic impact of climate change on public finances

This research project examines the effects of climate change on Finnish public finances from different perspectives. The project gathers information on global and local climate risks and specifies their effects on Finland and its economic sectors. The risks of

Research began 2020 Research ended 2023

ANGLE: A Network Game for Life-cycle Education

According to the latest OECD PISA and PIAAC reports there are still too many young people around the world who lack an adequate level of proficiency in financial topics, with likely negative consequences for their future. Economic and Financial

Research began 2020 Research ended 2021

Impacts of climate policy on employment (Etlatieto Oy)

The aim of this project is to explore the mechanisms and channels through which climate policy affects employment. The changes in demand for skills and professional structure in the various sectors of the national economy arising from climate policy

Research began 2020 Research ended 2023

Health Care Efficiency

This research project develops tools to improve the measurement of health care efficiency as part of occupational well-being projecst. In the future, measeurements will be included in R&D projectst hat develop well-being at work. A key tool is a

Research began 2020 Research ended 2023

REGROW – Reigniting growth through innovation

The world and its current economic growth paradigm are facing an exceptional combination of health, environmental, and economic crises. The Covid-19 pandemic, the accelerating climate change, and the persistent long-term economic stagnation are jointly reshaping the societal landscape, and

Research began 2019 Research ended 2020

Sanctions as part of the EU’s external action

The European Union (EU) has increasingly introduced sanctions as a political tool in the 2010s, also directed against neighbor super power and key trading partner Russia. As the global competition tightens with the emphasis on both geopolitics and geoeconomics

Research began 2019 Research ended 2020

Assessment of the Cost of National Defense

The aim of this research project is to open and explain questions related to assessment of the cost of national defense. This project studies earlier economic research on national defense assessment and with the help of simplified example calculation

Research began 2020 Research ended 2021

Macroeconomic effects of demographic change

Population is currently aging in Finland due to low birth-rates and longer life expectancy. Net immigration is insufficient to compensate low brith-rates and so the number of working-age people is shrinking. Even though the continuation of aging is very

Research began 2020 Research ended 2020

Border Carbon Adjustment and Impact on the Finnish Economy

We analyse the effects of border carbon adjustment (BCA) on Finnish foreign trade, value chains, and the domestic economy. We also evaluate the practical issues and questions pertaining to international law, as well as alternative additional mechanisms to prevent

Research began 2019 Research ended 2020

Economic Analysis in the Area of Taxation

This study focuses on the interaction of global trends and taxation. It aims to identify drivers of change, to analyse their impact on level and structure of tax revenues and to develop future scenarios and their implications for tax

Research began 2015

ETLAnow

Etla currently has two projects that use big data in economic forecasting. ETLAnow unemployment predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and the latest official data from Eurostat. Forecasts three months

Research began 2018 Research ended 2019

Assessment of the medium-term growth potential of the economy

The page is under construction.

Research began 2018 Research ended 2019

The future of the Finnish tax system

This project studies how ongoing technological changes and globalization should be taken into account in the design of the Finnish tax system. The project takes stock of the research on how digitalization, artificial intelligence and robotization can be expected

Research began 2017 Research ended 2018

Living alone as part of the life cycle

The project provides comprehensive information on the situations of different sub-groups of persons who live alone. We sort out the occurrence of people living alone both geographically and at different stages of the life cycle and during life’s turning

Research began 2013 Research ended 2017

Debt relations and welfare financing in Finland

The study analyses on debt and debt relations of individuals and the public sector in a welfare state. It characterizes the properties of private and public debt and implicit public liabilities, studies household debt in a life-cycle perspective, assesses

Research began 2016 Research ended 2018

Distribution of risks in statutory employee pension schemes

The research project aims at analysing the distribution of risks that relate to employee pension insurance benefits and their funding, both in theoretical scheme types (public/private, statutory/voluntary, defined benefit/defined contribution, funded/pay-as-you-go) and in their different combinations as employed by

Research began 2014 Research ended 2017

Economic Consequences of Ageing [Completed]

The project combines inputs of demographers and economist to update our knowledge on the economic effects of ageing and to provide new information on specific thematic areas. Typical questions to be answered are: How does population ageing affect individuals’

Research began 2016 Research ended 2019

Inclusive Promotion of Health and Wellbeing

The project aims at providing new information on reasons of health inequities, as well as recommendations for policy and future strategies to promote health and wellbeing. The undertaking will develop evidence-based and cost-effective models of health and wellbeing promotion

Research began 2015 Research ended 2018

FIRSTRUN – Fiscal Rules and Strategies under Externalities and Uncertainties

Fiscal policy rules that the European Union imposes on the member countries have been reformed during the course of Euro crisis. A multinational research project led by Etla aims at assessing the appropriateness of the reforms and finding prospective

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