Etla’s research group Macroeconomy and public finances includes the forecasting group that monitors and forecasts international and domestic economic developments and reports about them in its publications. The forecasting group also evaluates the effects of economic policy, and develops forecasting methods.
In recent years, Etla has focused especially on monitoring the international economy and Finnish industry. In economic forecasting, Etla uses several models and calculation systems.
In forecasting the domestic economy, Etla’s overall economic model, a detailed calculation framework based on national accounts and the input-output model, (used in the preparation of industry forecasts), are helpful. Forecasts are made using the English NiGEM model, the global econometric model developed by the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
A comprehensive economic forecast is published in Finnish twice a year (in March and in September) and contains Etla’s forecasts for both the international and domestic economy. A summary in English is published separately at the same time.
Etla is a member of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE), and the European Forecasting Research Association for the Macro-Economy (EUROFRAME), a network of ten leading European economic research institutes.
Etla’s Head of forecasting is Päivi Puonti.
