Forecasting

Etla’s research group Macroeconomy and public finances includes the forecasting group that monitors and forecasts international and domestic economic developments and reports about them in its publications. The forecasting group also evaluates the effects of economic policy, and develops forecasting methods.

In recent years, Etla has focused especially on monitoring the international economy and various industries in Finland. In economic forecasting, Etla uses several models and calculation systems.

In forecasting the domestic economy, Etla’s overall economic model, a detailed calculation framework based on national accounts and the input-output model, which is used in the preparation of industry forecasts, are helpful in forecasting the domestic economy. Forecasts of the international economy are made using the English NiGEM model, the global econometric model developed by the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The comprehensive economic forecast is published twice a year (in March and in September) and contains ETLA’s forecasts for international and domestic economy. A summary in English is published separately at the time of the publication of the economic forecast.

Etla is a member of AIECE, the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes, and the EUROFRAME network of ten leading European economic research institutes.

Etla’s Head of forecasting is Päivi Puonti.