Forecasting

ETLA’s research program Macroeconomy, international economy and cycles includes the forecasting group that monitors and forecasts international and domestic economic developments and reports about them in its publications. The forecasting group also assesses effects of economic policy, and develops methods of forecasting.

In recent years ETLA has focussed on monitoring international economy and Finland’s industries. For forecasting ETLA uses several models and computing systems. Domestic developments are forecasted using ETLA’s own models for macroeconomy and various industries, as well as a model suitable for assessing the economy’s long-term growth prospects. For forecasts regarding international economy ETLA uses NiGEM, the global econometric model developed by the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The forecasting group’s key publication is Suhdanne that appears twice a year (in March and in September) and contains ETLA’s forecasts for international and domestic economy. A summary in English is published separately at the time of Suhdanne’s publication. A selection of slides is available here.

ETLA is a member of AIECE, the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes, and the EUROFRAME network of ten leading European economic research institutes.

The forecasting group is headed by research director Markku Kotilainen.