Macroeconomy, international economy and cycles

Macroeconomy, international economy and cycles

  • Macroeconomic issues in Finland and the world
  • Foreign trade and direct investment
  • Economic forecasts

The research focuses on Finnish and global macroeconomic development and its effects on Finnish business. Domestic and international fiscal policies are also evaluated on this basis.

The economic and institutional development of the euro area, and more widely of the EU, is of key importance to the operational framework of the Finnish economy and commercial activity of businesses. In a global world it is important to look also at other markets, e.g. Russia, the United States and China. The emphasis of the research is on the effects of international development on Finland. One tool aiding in global economic research at ETLA’s disposal is the National Institute global econometric model, NiGEM.

The analysis of Finland’s macroeconomy and the development of its various sectors is based on special expertise, computational frameworks and models developed for forecasting. Research is conducted on, for example, foreign trade, consumption, investment and the public economy. We have at our disposal a macroeconomic model representing the Finnish economy, a detailed computational framework based on national account statistics, an input-output model as well as computational frameworks and models for key sectors.

The most important of ETLA’s published forecasts is Suhdanne, coming out twice annually (March and September), which is published both as a free internet version and a paper edition available for order. After each Suhdanne is published, a more detailed report is released assessing development in the main industrial sectors free of charge on ETLA’s website. Once a month we draft an economic outlook report available for order. Monthly statistics and forecasts based on time series analysis and so-called big data are also published automatically on ETLA’s website under the ETLAnow heading. Currently, monthly unemployment rate forecasts are published for Finland and a large number of European countries.

In research and forecasting work close-knit international co-operation is of pivotal importance. Our main networks are the Euroframe network of ten European economic research institutes and the broad-based AIECE network of European forecasting institutes.

Researches of the program

Research began 2015
Etla currently has two projects that use big data in economic forecasting. ETLAnow unemployment predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and latest official data from Eurostat. The forecasts for three
Research began 2016 Research ends 2017
We construct an up-to-date study of the Chinese economy, its international role, and especially Finnish-Chinese Economic Relations. ETLA’s research team has previously done several studies on, e.g., Finland’s EU and EMU membership, Finnish-Russian Economic Relations, and Finnish-American Economic Relations.
The aim is to build a new macroeconomic forecasting model that will replace the existing one. ETLA is using several models in its research and forecasting activity. These include the NiGEM model for the world economy, the macroeconomic model