Kimmo Aaltonen

Working Papers 138

DemoGraphics – Population in Pictures

Alho Juha
The recent drastic decline of fertility has further worsened the negative intrinsic growth of Finland. The country appears to
Akademiska publikationer

Firm-level Responses to Export Demand Shocks: Swedish and Finnish Exporters

Maczulskij TerhiEl-Sahli ZouheirNilsson Hakkala Katariina
We study how incumbent exporters adjust to firm-specific export demand shocks, using matched firm-, product- and destination-level data for
Promemoria 178

AI Has a Neutral or Even Positive Association with the Well-Being of Finnish Wage Earners

Kauhanen AnttiRouvinen Petri
Based on Statistics Finland’s Quality of Work Life Survey, we find that AI use, or its intensity, is not
Working Papers 137

AI and Worker Well-being: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Study

Bryson AlexKauhanen AnttiRouvinen Petri
Utilizing nationally representative cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Finland (2018–2023), we provide a population-level assessment of the relationship between
Akademiska publikationer

Which Discoveries Are Paradigm Shifting?

Ashouri SajadHajikhani ArashHyytinen AriRouvinen PetriSuominen Arho
To more closely align theories of paradigm-shifting discoveries and their empirical quantification, we propose a novel measure that incorporates
Promemoria 177

How Does Immigration Affect the Finnish Economy?

Kauhanen Antti
Immigration affects the Finnish economy in various ways, including through the labour market, productivity, and public finances. The economic
Rapporter 176

Economic Impacts of Immigration: The Structure of Immigration and Integration Play a Determining Role

Kauhanen Antti
The report demonstrates that the economic impacts of immigration are not unequivocally positive or negative, but are decisively influenced
Rapporter 175

At the Limits of Taxation: Perspectives on High Marginal Tax Rates in Finland

Kuusi TeroKotamäki MauriKirkko-Jaakkola Mikael
We examine the effects of Finland’s highest marginal income tax rates by integrating traditional analytical frameworks, recent empirical evidence,
Rapporter 174

Does Information Sharing Encourage Participation in Education? Final Report on the Letter Mail Experiment and the Outreach Pilot

Karhunen HannuKauhanen AnttiKuhakoski JaniRiukula KristaSuhonen TuomoVanhala PekkaVirtanen Hanna
This study evaluated the effectiveness of two different measures in increasing participation in adult education among adults with low
Promemoria 176

Finland’s Recently Tightened Business Finance Landscape: Particularly Growth-oriented and Innovative Businesses Under Pressure

Kaila MatiasPajarinen MikaRouvinen PetriYlhäinen Ilkka
We analyze recent shifts in the financial conditions of Finnish enterprises, utilizing the European Central Bank’s survey data that
Promemoria 175

Do R&D Spillovers Support Emission Abatement Targets?

Kuosmanen NataliaKuosmanen Timo
Abstract This brief examines how R&D spillovers are associated with firm-level greenhouse gas emissions in Finnish energy-intensive manufacturing. The
Working Papers 136

Do R&D Spillovers Support Low-carbon Transition? Firm-level Evidence from Finnish Energy-intensive Manufacturing

Kuosmanen NataliaKuosmanen TimoZhou Xun
A structural shift from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable, sustainable energy sources critically depends on research and development
Rapporter 173

An Evaluation of the 2026 Earnings-Related Pension Reform

Lassila JukkaValkonen TarmoKauppi Eija
This study evaluates the reforms proposed by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health for the earnings-related pension system
Promemoria 174

Firm Subsidies in the Green Transition

Kässi OttoWang Maria
This policy brief analyses the level and structure of business support measures related to the green transition in Finland
Böcker

Growth Leap of Finland and its Businesses: Innovation and Finance Justify Rational Optimism

Maliranta MikaRouvinen Petri
In this book, we examine the roles of innovation and finance in the growth of the Finnish economy and
Promemoria 173

Artificial Intelligence Has Not Impacted Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Finland

Kauhanen AnttiRouvinen Petri
While research by Brynjolfsson et al. (2025) suggests that youth employment in the United States has declined significantly in
Working Papers 135

AI Has Not Impacted the Youth Labor Market in Finland

Kauhanen AnttiRouvinen Petri
We examine the impact of generative AI on the youth labor market in Finland by replicating the key analyses
Akademiska publikationer

Assessing the Accuracy of Probabilistic Population Forecasts

Alho JuhaKeilman Nico
Stochastic demographic forecasts indicate to their users the ex ante level of uncertainty to be expected. There are approximately
Promemoria 172

The Societal Costs of Taxation – Policy Recommendations for Finland

Ropponen Olli
This brief examines the societal costs of taxation using international economic research literature and the Marginal Value of Public
Rapporter 172

The Societal Costs of Taxation – What Do We Know About the Adverse Effects of Finnish Taxes

Ropponen Olli
This report examines the benefits of different types of taxes in relation to their adverse effects, using a modeling
Promemoria 171

The Impact of Trade Shocks on Innovation Activity in Finnish Firms

Maczulskij Terhi
Previous international research suggests a positive association between improved access to trade market and innovation activity. This policy brief
Akademiska publikationer

Killers on the Road of Emerging Start-ups – Implications for Market Entry and Venture Capital Financing

Koski HeliKässi OttoBraesemann Fabian
The competitive effects of acquisitions made by large US-based technology companies have come under increased regulatory scrutiny over recent
Working Papers 134

Global Demand, Local Ideas: The Impact of Trade Shocks on Firm Innovation

Maczulskij Terhi
This paper examines how firms’ innovation activity responds to product- and destination-specific export demand shocks in their export markets.
Promemoria 170

Fiscal Consolidation in Finland: Lessons from International Research and Preconditions for Success

Tervala JuhaPuonti Päivi
Finland’s public finances are chronically in deficit, and the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise. The current government has already

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