FutureForest2040 – Finnish forest industry’s structural changes and market and employment visions for 2040 (Etlatieto Oy)
Research group: Business renewal Research began: 2019 Research ended: 2022 Sponsored by: Metsämiesten Säätiö Foundation

Responsible for research:

FutureForest2040 – Finnish forest industry’s structural changes and market and employment visions for 2040 (Etlatieto Oy)

FutureForest2040 – Finnish forest industry’s structural changes and market and employment visions for 2040 (Etlatieto Oy)

The purpose of the project is by anticipating create a road map how the forest industry and related products, services and the use of wood will change in the next few decades. The results of the projects will significantly support readjustment of Finnish forest industry’s to structural changes in both short and long-time span.

This project will especially focus on employment, export and value added effect in the Finnish economy. We also assess changes in skills needs and, consequently, the need for reform in the field of education.

The project is implemented by two leading players in their field: the European Forest Institute (EFI) and the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA). The project will last 3 years and it is divided into four interconnected work packages.

The first work package foresees the development of the coming decades by limiting 3–4 possible future scenarios for the development of the Finnish forest sector to 2040, and external scenarios to 2025.

The study combines several methods and tools of futures research and foresight. Project will focus on diverse development of operating environment’s phenomena which are further subdivided into variables affecting their development.

In addition, unknow future changes are perceived and proactively innovated, their meaning is valued, and concrete paths to desired changes to this day are built.

The second set of work analyzes, using quantitative methods, the impact of different scenarios on the forest sector and on both the national economy and different industries. Valuations of impacts are approached in the short-term future (2025) and in the medium term (2040).

The third work package produces policy and action recommendations for different scenarios and their short- and long-term impacts. The main questions here are:

  • Which measures best support positive development in the forest sector?
  • How can the negative effects of structural changes be minimized?
  • What is the concrete innovation, goal and vision in the 2040 timeframe that Finland’s forest sector should actively pursue?

The fourth set of work includes communication of the progress and results of the project. Communication is a continuous project through all work packages. The essential information of the project is shared both in EFI’s and Etla’s webpages.

The results of the project will be announced at an open closing seminar. The final seminar will be broadcast live and recorded on EFI’s and Etla’s YouTube channels.

Future scenario workshops, personalized communication to representatives of selected target groups and co-operation with industry associations are also crucial communication methods. In addition, open lectures are held in the project. Their purpose is to give the floor not only to forest bio economists, but also to other interested parties. These lectures also contribute to educational cooperation.


The project has been funded by the Metsämiesten Säätiö Foundation. Donations and foundation merges are an important part of the effectiveness of the Foundation’s non-profit activities. More information here.

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