Structural Changes in the Finnish Forest-based Sector, and Market and Employment Impacts in 2040

Abstract

Forests can be seen as a source of wood raw material and bioenergy, a recreational area with health benefits, a carbon sink, and a source of biodiversity. This report examines how different shifts in perceptions and in the wider forest sector environment affect forest sector production, wood use, and the development of workforce skills needs.

The forward-looking analysis is based on a projection up to 2026 and scenario work up to 2040. Combined with today’s views on changes in forest ownership and management practices, technological developments and policy measures already agreed and planned, the foresight work creates a broad vision of the future of the forest sector.

Although the outlook for the forest-based industries is relatively stable for the coming years, significant changes are foreseen by 2040. Changes in forestry will be driven by changes in forest management practices and forest ownership, climate and biodiversity targets for land use, and changes in the risk of natural disturbances due to climate change.

In production, development paths depend more strongly on how society, and hence demand for final products, evolves. Value added in the forest industry can increase, in particular if the by-products of production can be diverted from energy production to high value-added products. This development will be limited by the energy needs of the production processes themselves, which will have to be met by other means if the energy from the by-products is abandoned in significant quantities.

Supplementary-material

Publication info

Results of research
FutureForest2040 – Finnish forest industry’s structural changes and market and employment visions for 2040 (Etlatieto Oy)
Research group
Business renewal
Series
ETLA Raportit - Reports 131
Date
28.09.2022
Keywords
Scenarios, Foresight, Forest sector, Wood uses, Forest management practices
ISSN
2323-2447, 2323-2455 (Pdf)
JEL
L73, C53, P18
Pages
42
Language
Finnish