A cohort-component forecast is based on assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and net migration. In the trend forecast at hand the components of change are assumed to continue to develop as they have done in the recent past. Total fertility is assumed stay at 1.26 children per woman. Mortality is assumed to decline, in each age, as it did before the COVID19 pandemic. Net migration is assumed to be 24 000 per year. The assumptions are purely demographic in nature. In other words no specific assumptions about the possible underlying economic or social processes are made. Yet, the assumption regarding net migration is markedly lower that that of a recent forecast of Statistics Finland. The difference derives from the assessment of the upsurge of in-migration in 2021–2023. In the forecast at hand it is considered a temporary phenomenon, to a larger extent than in the forecast of Statistics Finland. In consequence, population growth is expected to stop, and turn into a slow decline. The results are graphically displayed. In addition to point forecasts, 80% prediction intervals are presented in several places. The forecast is a stochastic one.
Download Etla’s population projection (Excel-file).
