Nowcasting model for tourism
Research group: Growth, international trade and competition Research began: 2019 Research ended: 2020 Sponsored by: Business Finland
Nowcasting model for tourism

Nowcasting model for tourism

Statistics Finland, Finlands Bank and Etla Economic Research have developed modeling based on nowcasting methods which are used to model certain monitored economic indicators using other, rapidly updated data sources.

Tourism is a cyclical phenomenon where changes can be rapid. Statistics on tourism are produced at different rates and their publication delay does not fully meet the information needs. In addition, new source materials have been identified that could be used to both anticipate the evolution of existing tourism indicators and potentially produce entirely new indicators.

The aim is to develop a tourism nowcasting model for Business Finland. The model produces current information on foreigners’ travel to Finland as well as short-term proactive information.

The main focus of the project is on anticipating foreign tourism to Finland.

During the project, the suitability of different models and source materials for predicting selected phenomena will be tested. The model uses new source materials – which affect development of tourism whether directly or indirectly – in addition to current tourism statistics.

This research project is carried out as in colloration with Etla and Statistics Finland.