Truck traffic-based nowcasts predict a fall in real output for April and May

The model developed by ETLA and Statistics Finland, based on data on truck traffic volumes observed by automatic measurement points around Uusimaa and provided by Traffic Management Finland Oy, indicates a drop in real output for both April and May.

In particular, the estimate of the year-on-year growth rate of real output is -3.4 for April, while for May we predict a drop of -5.4. The current version of the model includes, in addition of the truck data, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Finland, available on the European Commission webpage (ESI). Notice that these nowcasts are based on a limited set of information, especially for May, where we only have 4 working days’ worth of data, and it is susceptible of changes.

The estimate for May will be updated again during the course of the month, when more data are accumulated. The plot of the year-on-year growth of the Trend Indicator of Output (TIO), our target variable, and the predictions obtained from the model are reported in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate of the TIO and predictions obtained from the model. Both are expressed in percentage points.


More information:

Head of forecasting Markku Lehmus, Etla, +358 445498455

Researcher Paolo Fornaro, Etla, +358 40 9658449,