Beggar-Thy-Neighbor by Other Means

Markkanen JaakkoSiikanen MarkkuValmari Nelli

Abstract

A country that cannot devalue its currency can still cut its exporters’ costs through industrial policy and steal business from foreign rivals. We call this beggar-thy-neighbor by other means and measure it for Finland’s 2017–2019 internal devaluation policy. We estimate the export demand for nine large manufacturing industries, together accounting for roughly 4 percent of Finnish GDP, using a BLP-style demand model and a sufficient-statistic identity for cost incidence. We document super-pass-through to export prices, averaging about 1.18, above the CES gravity ceiling. The realized policy cut labor costs by 3.6 percent and raised Finnish export revenue by €239.0 million over 2017–2020, 0.6 percent of baseline. A more ambitious original government proposal with 5 percent cost decrease would have shifted €567.8 million in revenue away from rival exporters in the same destinations. A hypothetical four-day work week would have cost €2.4 billion with wage costs rising 28 percent. Internal devaluation captures export-market share from foreign rivals. The cross-border revenue transfer is comparable in magnitude to the domestic gains.

Information om publikationen

Forskningsgrupp
Tillväxt, internationell handel och konkurrens
Serie
ETLA Working Papers 141
Datum
15.06.2026
Nyckelord
International trade, Markups, Pass-through, Industrial policy, Internal devaluation
ISSN
2323-2420, 2323-2439 (Pdf)
JEL
F12, F14, L11, L13, L52
Sidor
62
Språk
Engelska