Firm Productivity and the Composition of Jobs in the Green Economy: Factor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Clean Destinations

Kuusela Olli-PekkaKuusi Tero

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of emissions reductions in a model with heterogeneous firms, search-and-matching frictions, endogenous technology adoption, and sector-specific capital adjustment costs. Extending the framework of Finkelstein Shapiro and Metcalf (2023) and calibrating to Finland, we distinguish between high- and low-productivity clean technologies within a three-sector framework. Our results show that an emission reduction policy implemented via a carbon tax induces modest losses in output and consumption, as part of the reallocation away from emissions-intensive sector is absorbed by lower-productivity clean sector. By contrast, the standard two-sector model with a single clean technology shows slightly positive output effects due to a greater increase in average firm productivity. These findings highlight that the macroeconomic costs of climate policies depend on the productivity composition of the expanding clean sector. Within the emissions-intensive sector, emissions are mainly reduced through abatement activities, but the degree of factor reallocation is still substantial: under the baseline calibration, employment in the emissions-intensive sector declines by nearly one-quarter in response to a 40% emissions reduction target. Lower abatement costs reduce the extent of factor reallocation required to achieve a given emissions reduction target.

Publication info

Results of research
Charting the change: innovations, wellbeing and economic transformations (Cartagena)
Research group
Macroeconomy and public finances
Series
ETLA Working Papers 154
Date
02.11.2026
Keywords
Carbon tax, Green transition, Firm heterogeneity, Search frictions, Technology adoption, Capital adjustment costs, Finland
ISSN
2323-2420, 2323-2439 (Pdf)
JEL
E24, E32, J64, Q52, Q58
Pages
52
Language
English