The global economy is rapidly moving into a geo-economic era defined by increasing geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism, directly challenging the fundamental open economic model of the Nordic countries. Analysis confirms a substantial reliance on imported intermediate goods and raw materials, with supply chains deeply anchored within Europe, supplemented by robust intra-Nordic trade. However, this reliance introduces vulnerabilities, defined by high sourcing concentration, extra-European origin, and limited domestic substitution capacity. Significant disparities exist, with Norway and Denmark showing the highest exposure to vulnerable inputs, while Sweden and Iceland demonstrate greater resilience. Crucially, the sources of the most vulnerable inputs dominated by the US for Denmark and Sweden, and China for Finland and Iceland. Strategic critical raw materials, essential for green and digital transitions, also exhibit pronounced concentration patterns, often relying heavily on non-European partners. While exports remain foundational, the threat of rising trade barriers poses an immediate risk to export destinations across the Atlantic and beyond. Large firms are the central actors in each Nordic country, both importing the majority of intermediate goods, but also vulnerable goods, and driving the bulk of exports.
