Forecasting Economic Impact of Climate Policy

Rantala Olavi

This paper describes the main features of a model developed for forecasting economic developments, energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU area and Finland as well as for simulating the economic impacts of EU climate policy. Climate policy analysis necessitates a model of the whole EU area, because CO2 emissions of the EU area emission trading sector determine the demand and price of emission allowances. The main conclusion from model simulations is that output and employment losses induced by EU climate policy in 2008-2012 will be more severe in a small open energy intensive economy like Finland than in the rest of the EU area. The negative impacts of EU climate policy on export competitiveness, exports and output volume in Finland will be strongest in the energy intensive industrial sec-tors which belong to the EU emission trading sector.

Information om publikationen

Serie
Discussion Papers no. 1169
Nyckelord
kasvihuonekaasupäästöt, päästörajoitusten taloudelliset vaikutukset
Nyckelord
greenhouse gas emissions, economic impacts of emission reduction
JEL
C5,E3,Q4,Q5
Sidor
24
Pris
10 €
Tillgänglighet av tryckt version
Tillgänglig
Språk
Finska