---
title: "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches"
authors:
  - name: "Tuhkuri, Joonas"
    url: "https://www.etla.fi/henkilot/tuhkuri-joonas/"
    sameAs:
      - "https://twitter.com/joonastuhkuri"
      - "https://joonastuhkuri.com/"
date_published: "2016-03-02"
series: "ETLA Working Papers"
series_number: "35"
issn:
  - "2323-2420"
  - "2323-2439"
jel_codes:
  - "C22"
  - "C53"
  - "C55"
  - "C82"
  - "E27"
language: "en"
publisher: "ETLA Economic Research"
pdf_url: "https://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Working-Papers-35.pdf"
keywords:
  - "Big Data"
  - "Google"
  - "Internet"
  - "Nowcasting"
  - "Forecasting"
  - "Unemployment"
identifier: "https://www.etla.fi/julkaisut/id/ETLA-Working-Papers-35"
---

# Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches

**Published:** 2016-03-02  
**Categories:** Publications, Working Papers  
**URL:** https://www.etla.fi/en/publications/forecasting-unemployment-with-google-searches/

Data on Google searches help predict the unemployment rate in the U.S. But the predictive power of Google searches is limited to short-term predictions, the value of Google data for forecasting purposes is episodic, and the improvements in forecasting accuracy are only modest. The results, obtained by (pseudo) out-of-sample forecast comparison, are robust to a state-level fixed effects model and to different search terms. Joint analysis by cross-correlation function and Granger non-causality tests verifies that Google searches anticipate the unemployment rate. The results illustrate both the potentials and limitations of using big data to predict economic indicators.

---

## Additional Information

**Kirjoittajat:** Tuhkuri, Joonas

**Kansikuva:** https://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Working-Papers-35_kansi.jpg

**Lataa Pdf:** https://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Working-Papers-35.pdf

**Key Words:** Big Data, Google, Internet, Nowcasting, Forecasting, Unemployment

**Jel:** C22, C53, C55, C82, E27

**Paivays:** 02.03.2016

**Sivuja:** 34

15

**Kieli:** en

**Sarja:** ETLA Working Papers

**Sarja Nro:** 35

**Issn:** 2323-2420, 2323-2439

**Saatavuus:** 1

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