• Taxation
  • Population ageing and sustainability of public finances
  • Social security and life cycle perspective
  • Division of labour between the public and the private sector
  • Economic forecasts

The main focus of our public finance research is on structural issues related to taxation and social security. The long-term problems of economic policy are addressed in particular from the perspective of population ageing, with an emphasis on the uncertainties and risks associated with economic and demographic development. The policy analysis focuses on the sustainability of public finances and the evaluation of related operational strategies. Sustainability assessments also include cyclical issues, such as measuring the tightness of fiscal policy.

Research topics relate to savings and wealth, pensions and other elements of the social security system, income distribution between generations and public debt. Social security is often analysed from a life-cycle perspective.

Tools used for analysing and forecasting the Finnish economy include a macroeconomic model, a calculation framework based on national accounts, an input-output model, and models describing different sectors. We also use a global macro model, NiGEM, to analyse developments in the global economy. In the drafting of forecasts, nowcasting methods are developed and the possibilities offered by artificial intelligence are explored.

Key forecasting networks include Euroframe, consisting of European research institutes, as well as AIECE, comprising European conjuncture institutes.

Researches of the program

Research began 2019 Research ends 2019
This study focuses on the interaction of global trends and taxation. It aims to identify drivers of change, to analyse their impact on level and structure of tax revenues and to develop future scenarios and their implications for tax
Research began 2018 Research ends 2019
This project studies how ongoing technological changes and globalization should be taken into account in the design of the Finnish tax system. The project takes stock of the research on how digitalization, artificial intelligence and robotization can be expected
Research began 2017 Research ended 2018
The project provides comprehensive information on the situations of different sub-groups of persons who live alone. We sort out the occurrence of people living alone both geographically and at different stages of the life cycle and during life’s turning
Research began 2015
Etla currently has two projects that use big data in economic forecasting. ETLAnow unemployment predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and latest official data from Eurostat. The forecasts for three
Research began 2013 Research ended 2017
The study analyses on debt and debt relations of individuals and the public sector in a welfare state. It characterizes the properties of private and public debt and implicit public liabilities, studies household debt in a life-cycle perspective, assesses
Research began 2016 Research ended 2018
The research project aims at analysing the distribution of risks that relate to employee pension insurance benefits and their funding, both in theoretical scheme types (public/private, statutory/voluntary, defined benefit/defined contribution, funded/pay-as-you-go) and in their different combinations as employed by
Research began 2014 Research ended 2017
The project combines inputs of demographers and economist to update our knowledge on the economic effects of ageing and to provide new information on specific thematic areas. Typical questions to be answered are: How does population ageing affect individuals’
Research began 2016 Research ends 2019
The project aims at providing new information on reasons of health inequities, as well as recommendations for policy and future strategies to promote health and wellbeing. The undertaking will develop evidence-based and cost-effective models of health and wellbeing promotion
The aim is to build a new macroeconomic forecasting model that will replace the existing one. ETLA is using several models in its research and forecasting activity. These include the NiGEM model for the world economy, the macroeconomic model