ETLAnow unemployment

At the moment, ETLAnow predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and the latest official data from Eurostat. The forecasts are automatically updated every morning. The forecasts are also available on Twitter. ETLAnow is a collaborative work of 29 European research institutions.

We have crafted several documents on the ETLAnow project:

• Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data provides an overlook on how the latest version of the model works.
• ETLAnow: A Model for Forecasting with big data describes the background of the project and the methodology of the earlier model.
• Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches provides an extensive analysis on unemployment forecasting using Google data.
• Earlier work also includes this brief, which is based on our first trial for real-time forecasting and an earlier report in Finnish.

The ETLAnow project has been originally developed by Joonas Tuhkuri (MIT), the latest version of the ETLAnow model has been developed by Jetro Anttonen and the project is maintained by Etla.

The map above and tables below show the ETLAnow forecasts. The first row of a table gives the most recent official unemployment statistics in the EU from the European Union Labor Force Survey and the second row gives the ETLAnow forecasts.

The last row of each table compares the ETLAnow forecasts to the official unemployment rate one year ago. This comparison tells whether the ETLAnow forecasts rising or falling unemployment rate. For example, +0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected to be 0.1 percentage points higher than a year ago. Similarly, -0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected to fall as compared to the rate from a year ago. The forecasts and Google search terms used in the predictions are also available in the links below each table.

Last update for the automated estimates: 23.9.2023. Next forecast available: 25.9.2023.

Austria (AT)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	4.70	5.30	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	4.61	5.17	5.06	4.83	4.94	5.16	5.08	5.90	.
Change (pp)			+0.16%	-0.07%	0.64%	-0.14%	0.28%	0.20%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Austria.
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In collaboration with:

The Austrian Institute of Economic Research WIFO

Belgium (BE)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	5.40	5.70	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	5.25	5.93	5.63	5.39	5.26	5.21	5.32	5.47	.
Change (pp)			-0.07%	-0.21%	-0.34%	-0.39%	-0.38%	-0.23%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Belgium.
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In collaboration with:

The Federal Planning Bureau FPB

Bulgaria (BG)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	4.40	4.30	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.96	3.86	4.27	4.31	4.61	4.90	5.20	5.76	.
Change (pp)			+0.67%	0.81%	0.91%	1.10%	1.10%	1.46%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Bulgaria.
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In collaboration with:

Economic Research Institute ERI-BAS

Cyprus (CY)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	6.40	7.00	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	4.91	5.32	6.73	5.71	5.03	6.32	6.46	7.21	.
Change (pp)			-0.47%	-0.09%	-0.57%	-1.38%	-1.14%	0.11%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Cyprus.
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In collaboration with:

The Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus CypERC

Czech Republic (CZ)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	2.60	2.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	2.33	2.87	2.86	2.89	2.87	2.82	2.89	3.18	.
Change (pp)			+0.26%	0.69%	0.77%	0.12%	0.69%	0.58%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Czech Republic.
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In collaboration with:

Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University

Germany (DE)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	3.00	3.00	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.00	3.01	3.00	3.02	3.23	3.27	3.23	3.41	.
Change (pp)			-0.10%	0.12%	0.23%	0.27%	0.33%	0.31%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Germany.
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In collaboration with:

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy IFW

Denmark (DK)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	4.50	5.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	4.18	4.85	5.00	4.14	4.20	4.37	3.50	4.03	.
Change (pp)			±0.00%	-0.36%	-0.30%	-0.33%	-1.10%	-0.47%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Denmark.
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In collaboration with:

Danish Economic Councils

Estonia (EE)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	7.20	7.30	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	6.22	6.76	7.18	7.06	7.12	7.33	7.83	8.23	.
Change (pp)			+1.58%	1.76%	1.82%	1.93%	2.53%	3.03%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Estonia.
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In collaboration with:

Praxis Centre for Policy Studies

Spain (ES)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	11.20	11.20	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	12.11	11.29	11.33	11.35	11.37	11.40	11.41	12.04	.
Change (pp)			-1.37%	-1.65%	-1.53%	-1.50%	-1.49%	-1.36%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Spain.
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In collaboration with:

Economic Forecasting Center CEPREDE

Finland (FI)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	7.20	6.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	7.19	6.49	6.33	6.60	6.75	6.72	7.16	8.34	.
Change (pp)			-0.37%	-0.10%	0.95%	0.82%	0.46%	0.74%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 26.9.2023.
Google search terms for Finland.
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In collaboration with:

The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ETLA

France (FR)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	6.80	7.20	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	6.61	6.68	7.77	7.50	7.61	7.61	7.58	7.88	.
Change (pp)			+0.17%	0.30%	0.21%	0.31%	0.28%	0.48%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for France.
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In collaboration with:

Observatoire rançais des conjonctures économiques OFCE

Greece (GR)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	10.60	9.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	10.24	10.12	9.82	9.23	9.66	10.45	9.98	10.69	.
Change (pp)			-2.18%	-1.97%	-1.64%	-1.45%	-2.52%	-1.01%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Greece.
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In collaboration with:

Center of Planning and Economic Research KEPE

Croatia (HR)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	6.20	6.50	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	5.91	6.32	6.70	6.47	6.78	6.94	6.96	7.76	.
Change (pp)			+0.10%	0.07%	0.08%	0.04%	-0.04%	-0.04%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Croatia.
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In collaboration with:

Institute of Economics, Zagreb

Hungary (HU)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	3.80	3.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.86	4.17	4.12	4.20	4.18	4.30	4.40	4.76	.
Change (pp)			+0.52%	0.50%	0.48%	0.50%	0.60%	0.86%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Hungary.
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In collaboration with:

Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research

Ireland (IE)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	4.60	4.50	4.30	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.96	4.14	4.25	3.51	3.33	3.35	3.67	3.68	3.78
Change (pp)				-0.69%	-0.87%	-0.85%	-0.53%	-0.42%	-0.32%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Ireland.
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In collaboration with:

UCD Geary Institute

Italy (IT)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	7.00	7.20	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	7.06	6.37	6.01	7.04	7.54	8.15	8.07	9.17	.
Change (pp)			-1.69%	-0.86%	-0.56%	0.35%	0.17%	0.77%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Italy.
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In collaboration with:

Prometeia Associazione

Lithuania (LT)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	5.40	5.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	7.23	7.89	6.09	6.22	6.47	7.00	7.90	8.15	.
Change (pp)			+0.39%	0.42%	0.47%	0.80%	1.10%	0.35%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Lithuania.
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In collaboration with:

Bank of Lithuania

Luxembourg (LU)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	4.80	5.10	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	4.70	4.94	5.22	5.42	5.64	5.76	6.10	6.07	.
Change (pp)			+0.72%	0.72%	0.74%	0.86%	0.90%	0.87%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Luxembourg.
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In collaboration with:

Eurostat

Latvia (LV)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	6.50	6.50	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	5.62	5.52	6.51	6.54	6.63	6.83	7.15	7.50	.
Change (pp)			-0.39%	-0.26%	-0.07%	0.23%	0.55%	1.10%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Latvia.
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In collaboration with:

University of Latvia

Malta (MT)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	2.40	2.50	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	2.66	2.69	2.56	2.61	2.61	2.58	2.43	2.48	.
Change (pp)			-0.34%	-0.29%	-0.29%	-0.32%	-0.47%	-0.52%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Malta.
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In collaboration with:

Central Bank of Malta

Netherlands (NL)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	3.50	3.50	3.60	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.34	3.39	3.46	3.92	3.95	3.70	3.47	3.76	3.85
Change (pp)				0.02%	0.25%	0.20%	0.17%	0.06%	0.15%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Netherlands.
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In collaboration with:

Statistics Netherlands CBS and

Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis CPB

Poland (PL)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	2.50	2.70	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	2.43	2.76	2.83	2.90	2.82	2.91	3.08	3.53	.
Change (pp)			-0.07%	-0.10%	-0.08%	0.01%	0.18%	0.53%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Poland.
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In collaboration with:

Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research IBRKK

Portugal (PT)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	5.90	5.90	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	6.10	5.98	6.24	6.35	6.51	6.48	6.58	6.59	.
Change (pp)			+0.34%	0.25%	0.31%	-0.12%	-0.32%	-0.71%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Portugal.
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In collaboration with:

Nova School of Business and Economics and

Queen Mary, University of London and CEG-IST Lisbon

Romania (RO)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	5.40	5.40	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	5.36	5.26	5.08	5.14	5.16	4.94	5.19	5.36	.
Change (pp)			-0.22%	-0.26%	-0.54%	-0.86%	-0.71%	-0.44%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Romania.
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In collaboration with:

Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy

Sweden (SE)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	9.20	6.20	7.70	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	8.72	7.24	7.23	7.70	6.94	7.44	8.03	8.51	9.08
Change (pp)				1.20%	-0.16%	1.04%	1.13%	0.91%	0.88%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Sweden.
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In collaboration with:

Konjunkturinstitutet

Slovenia (SI)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	3.60	3.60	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	3.24	3.42	3.51	3.35	3.62	3.65	4.01	4.56	.
Change (pp)			-0.59%	-0.45%	0.02%	0.25%	0.61%	0.76%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Slovenia.
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In collaboration with:

Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia SKEP

Slovakia (SK)

Unemployment rate (%)	6/2023	7/2023	8/2023	9/2023	10/2023	11/2023	12/2023	1/2024	2/2024
Official	5.60	5.70	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
ETLAnow	5.96	6.03	5.65	5.89	5.83	5.85	5.99	6.23	.
Change (pp)			-0.35%	-0.21%	-0.17%	-0.15%	-0.11%	-0.07%

Date: 23.9.2023

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 23.9.2023.
Next update 25.9.2023.
Google search terms for Slovakia.
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In collaboration with:

Institute of Economic Research SAV

ETLAnow is fully automatic and Etla does not make any modifications to its forecasts prior to publication. Simulated historical data for the forecasts are available for download from links below the tables. This data estimates what ETLAnow would have predicted since 2014, if it were in use. Ultimately, we can evaluate the accuracy of the ETLAnow forecasts every month when new official data becomes available. The reported previous forecasts starting from August 2018 have been released prior to the official data releases. ETLAnow model is a seasonal Bayesian vector autoregressive model extended with Google data and it uses harmonized and non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. More details are available in the publications listed at the top of the page.

Potential errors or other observations can be reported to etlanow@etla.fi.

Copyright: All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.