ETLAnow unemployment
ETLAnow unemployment

ETLAnow unemployment

ETLAnow is an experiment at ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, to use big data in economic forecasting.

At the moment, ETLAnow predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and latest official data from Eurostat. The forecasts for three months ahead are automatically updated every morning. The forecasts are also available on Twitter. ETLAnow is a collaborative work of 29 European research institutions.

We have crafted several documents on the ETLAnow project. This report provides an overlook on how the model works. A more extensive analysis on unemployment forecasting using Google data is provided in a working paper using U.S. data. Earlier work also includes this brief, which is based on our first trial for real-time forecasting and an earlier report in Finnish.

The ETLAnow project has been developed by Joonas Tuhkuri and is maintained by Markku Lehmus at ETLA.

The map above and tables below show the ETLAnow forecasts. The first row of a table gives the most recent official unemployment statistics in the EU from the European Union Labor Force Survey. The second row gives the ETLAnow forecasts for the next three months, this month, and the past three months. The forecasts for the previous months are reported, because the official records on the state of the economy are published with a delay.

The last row of each table compares the ETLAnow forecasts to the official unemployment rate one year ago. This comparison tells whether the ETLAnow forecasts rising or falling unemployment rate. For example, +0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected 0.1 percentage points higher than a year ago. Similarly -0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected to fall as compared to the rate a year ago. The forecasts and Google search terms used in the predictions are available from links below each table.

Last update for the automated estimates: 23.7.2018. Next forecast available: 24.7.2018.

EU-28

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official7.106.90.....
ETLAnow7.327.186.936.916.926.936.93
Change (pp)  -0.47%-0.49%-0.38%-0.37%-0.47%
Date: 23.7.2018

Austria (AT)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official4.904.30.....
ETLAnow5.144.984.494.654.734.954.94
Change (pp)  -0.51%-0.85%-0.67%-0.45%-0.06%
Date: 23.7.2018

Belgium (BE)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.905.70.....
ETLAnow6.416.305.825.956.086.186.22
Change (pp)  -1.08%-1.45%-1.32%-0.82%-0.38%
Date: 23.7.2018

Bulgaria (BG)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.305.00.....
ETLAnow5.495.294.994.984.944.984.99
Change (pp)  -1.11%-1.02%-0.96%-0.62%-0.61%
Date: 23.7.2018

Cyprus (CY)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official8.107.30.....
ETLAnow9.748.187.417.517.637.697.75
Change (pp)  -2.99%-2.99%-2.57%-1.61%-0.85%
Date: 23.7.2018

Czech Republic (CZ)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official2.202.20.....
ETLAnow2.102.212.202.202.222.242.24
Change (pp)  -0.60%-0.70%-0.58%-0.46%-0.36%
Date: 23.7.2018

Germany (DE)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official3.603.40.....
ETLAnow3.523.483.433.453.493.523.53
Change (pp)  -0.17%-0.15%-0.31%+0.02%-0.17%
Date: 23.7.2018

Denmark (DK)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.104.90.....
ETLAnow4.865.114.914.904.894.894.89
Change (pp)  -0.69%-0.90%-1.01%-0.71%-0.51%
Date: 23.7.2018

Estonia (EE)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.20......
ETLAnow6.055.195.195.245.325.415.48
Change (pp) -1.81%-1.31%-0.56%+0.12%-0.19%+0.38%
Date: 23.7.2018

Spain (ES)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official16.2015.70.....
ETLAnow16.6216.0915.6815.6715.5215.4615.36
Change (pp)  -0.92%-0.63%-0.88%-1.04%-1.24%
Date: 23.7.2018

Finland (FI)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official8.609.30.....
ETLAnow9.429.918.907.957.677.677.36
Change (pp)  ±-0.00%+0.45%+0.17%-0.33%+0.06%
Date: 23.7.2018

France (FR)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official9.109.00.....
ETLAnow8.999.099.008.989.029.039.05
Change (pp)  +0.10%-0.12%-0.58%-0.17%-0.25%
Date: 23.7.2018

Greece (GR)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official.......
ETLAnow20.4820.3820.2520.1420.2920.2020.09
Change (pp)-1.12%-1.42%+0.05%-0.06%-0.41%+0.30%-0.41%
Date: 23.7.2018

Croatia (HR)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official8.907.90.....
ETLAnow10.459.027.907.847.998.048.08
Change (pp)  -1.80%-1.66%-1.61%-1.56%-2.32%
Date: 23.7.2018

Hungary (HU)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official3.70......
ETLAnow3.773.683.663.653.643.633.62
Change (pp) -0.62%-0.54%-0.55%-0.46%-0.37%-0.18%
Date: 23.7.2018

Ireland (IE)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.305.30.....
ETLAnow5.975.875.235.155.095.054.99
Change (pp)  -1.77%-2.05%-1.91%-1.45%-1.21%
Date: 23.7.2018

Italy (IT)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official11.4010.50.....
ETLAnow11.2811.4410.4510.4310.4310.5210.69
Change (pp)  -0.25%-0.27%+0.23%-0.38%-0.61%
Date: 23.7.2018

Lithuania (LT)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official7.006.70.....
ETLAnow8.397.096.736.806.886.957.07
Change (pp)  -0.27%+0.10%+0.38%+0.35%+0.87%
Date: 23.7.2018

Luxembourg (LU)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.104.90.....
ETLAnow5.315.124.924.944.964.985.00
Change (pp)  -0.28%-0.46%-0.34%-0.42%-0.40%
Date: 23.7.2018

Latvia (LV)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official7.607.30.....
ETLAnow8.327.597.297.277.257.277.31
Change (pp)  -1.41%-1.43%-1.25%-1.03%-0.79%
Date: 23.7.2018

Malta (MT)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official4.204.00.....
ETLAnow3.323.124.044.074.114.144.17
Change (pp)  -0.46%-0.53%-0.49%-0.56%-0.33%
Date: 23.7.2018

Netherlands (NL)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official4.103.90.....
ETLAnow4.154.033.833.864.014.034.06
Change (pp)  -0.87%-0.74%-0.29%-0.67%-0.44%
Date: 23.7.2018

Poland (PL)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official3.803.60.....
ETLAnow4.483.743.553.503.433.383.33
Change (pp)  -1.25%-1.20%-1.27%-1.32%-1.27%
Date: 23.7.2018

Portugal (PT)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official7.207.10.....
ETLAnow7.507.327.026.966.886.796.70
Change (pp)  -1.68%-1.54%-1.72%-1.71%-1.80%
Date: 23.7.2018

Romania (RO)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official4.704.60.....
ETLAnow4.824.774.634.684.714.744.77
Change (pp)  -0.07%-0.12%-0.09%+0.04%+0.07%
Date: 23.7.2018

Sweden (SE)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official6.806.50.....
ETLAnow6.867.006.916.786.536.446.43
Change (pp)  -0.49%+0.18%+0.53%+0.24%+0.13%
Date: 23.7.2018

Slovenia (SI)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official5.605.50.....
ETLAnow5.275.205.505.545.525.535.53
Change (pp)  -0.80%-0.96%-0.88%-0.57%-0.37%
Date: 23.7.2018

Slovakia (SK)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official6.706.60.....
ETLAnow7.387.306.556.496.436.356.31
Change (pp)  -1.35%-1.41%-1.47%-1.75%-1.59%
Date: 23.7.2018

United Kingdom (UK)

Unemployment rate (%)4/20185/20186/20187/20188/20189/201810/2018
Official.......
ETLAnow4.104.084.074.064.114.154.11
Change (pp)-0.10%-0.22%-0.33%-0.34%-0.29%-0.25%-0.09%
Date: 23.7.2018

ETLAnow is fully automatic and ETLA does not make any modifications to its forecasts prior to publication. Simulated historical data for the forecasts are available for download from links below the tables. These data estimates what predictions ETLAnow would have done since 2004, if it were in use. Ultimately, we can evaluate the accuracy of the ETLAnow forecasts every month when new official data become available. From May 2016 reported previous forecasts are those released prior the official data was available. ETLAnow model is an autoregressive model extended with Google data and it uses harmonized and non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. More details are available in the ETLAnow report.

Potential errors or other observations can be reported to etlanow@etla.fi.

Copyright: All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.