ETLAnow unemployment

ETLAnow is an experiment at ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, to use big data in economic forecasting.

At the moment, ETLAnow predicts the unemployment rate in every EU country using real-time data from Google Trends database and latest official data from Eurostat. The forecasts for three months ahead are automatically updated every morning. The forecasts are also available on Twitter. ETLAnow is a collaborative work of 29 European research institutions.

We have crafted several documents on the ETLAnow project. This report provides an overlook on how the model works. A more extensive analysis on unemployment forecasting using Google data is provided in a working paper using U.S. data. Earlier work also includes this brief, which is based on our first trial for real-time forecasting and an earlier report in Finnish.

The ETLAnow project has been developed by Joonas Tuhkuri and is maintained by Markku Lehmus at ETLA.

The map above and tables below show the ETLAnow forecasts. The first row of a table gives the most recent official unemployment statistics in the EU from the European Union Labor Force Survey. The second row gives the ETLAnow forecasts for the next three months, this month, and the past three months. The forecasts for the previous months are reported, because the official records on the state of the economy are published with a delay.

The last row of each table compares the ETLAnow forecasts to the official unemployment rate one year ago. This comparison tells whether the ETLAnow forecasts rising or falling unemployment rate. For example, +0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected 0.1 percentage points higher than a year ago. Similarly -0.1 indicates that the unemployment rate is expected to fall as compared to the rate a year ago. The forecasts and Google search terms used in the predictions are available from links below each table.

Last update for the automated estimates: 26.6.2017. Next forecast available: 27.6.2017.

EU-28

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 8.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 8.46 8.35 8.32 8.28 8.22 8.16 8.15
Change (pp)   -0.35 -0.28 -0.12 +0.02 -0.04 -0.05
Date: 26.6.2017

. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.


Austria (AT)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 6.00 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 5.89 5.90 5.85 5.80 5.76 5.75 5.70
Change (pp)   -0.10 -0.45 -0.30 -0.34 -0.55 -0.30
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The Austrian Institute of Economic Research WIFO

Belgium (BE)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 7.00 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 7.31 7.13 7.23 7.31 7.40 7.46 7.47
Change (pp)   -0.97 -0.67 -0.49 -0.70 -0.54 -0.13
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The Federal Planning Bureau FPB

Bulgaria (BG)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 7.10 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 7.17 7.08 7.08 7.10 7.14 7.20 7.28
Change (pp)   -1.42 -0.92 -0.50 -0.16 +0.20 +0.58
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Economic Research Institute ERI-BAS

Croatia (HR)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 12.50 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 13.20 12.51 12.52 12.53 12.55 12.57 12.57
Change (pp)   -1.19 +0.02 +0.63 +0.95 +1.07 +1.07
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Institute of Economics, Zagreb

Cyprus (CY)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 13.00 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 13.84 12.91 12.78 12.71 12.68 12.66 12.60
Change (pp)   +0.61 +1.08 +0.31 -0.52 -0.64 ±0.00
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus CypERC

Czech Republic (CZ)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 3.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 3.54 3.33 3.37 3.40 3.43 3.49 3.53
Change (pp)   -0.67 -0.33 -0.70 -0.87 -0.21 -0.37
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University

Denmark (DK)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 6.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 6.69 6.29 6.29 6.28 6.27 6.25 6.22
Change (pp)   +0.19 +0.29 +0.28 +0.07 -0.05 -0.18
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Danish Economic Councils

Estonia (EE)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official . . . . . . .
ETLAnow 5.60 5.62 5.64 5.65 5.66 5.62 5.61
Change (pp) -1.30 -0.88 -0.86 -1.15 -1.04 -1.88 -1.29
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Praxis Centre for Policy Studies

Finland (FI)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 9.60 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 9.55 9.62 10.06 9.62 8.69 7.98 7.88
Change (pp)   -0.18 -0.74 +0.32 +0.89 +0.78 +0.18
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ETLA

France (FR)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 10.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 10.55 10.25 10.19 10.10 10.01 9.98 9.94
Change (pp)   +0.35 +0.49 +0.80 +0.81 +0.18 +0.24
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Observatoire rançais des conjonctures économiques OFCE

Germany (DE)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 4.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 4.33 4.30 4.29 4.29 4.30 4.28 4.24
Change (pp)   +0.10 +0.09 +0.09 ±0.00 +0.18 +0.44
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy IFW

Greece (GR)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official . . . . . . .
ETLAnow 23.81 23.73 23.64 23.56 23.47 23.39 23.31
Change (pp) -0.89 +0.23 +0.34 +1.06 +0.87 +0.09 +1.21
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Center of Planning and Economic Research KEPE

Hungary (HU)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official . . . . . . .
ETLAnow 4.45 4.42 4.40 4.39 4.38 4.36 4.34
Change (pp) -1.35 -1.08 -0.70 -0.61 -0.52 -0.54 -0.36
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research

Ireland (IE)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 6.30 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 6.41 6.20 6.09 5.96 5.84 5.73 5.66
Change (pp)   -2.20 -2.51 -2.74 -2.76 -2.57 -1.64
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
UCD Geary Institute

Italy (IT)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 12.10 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 11.83 11.98 11.82 11.67 11.39 11.03 11.16
Change (pp)   +0.18 +0.32 +0.27 +0.69 +0.93 -0.54
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Prometeia Associazione

Latvia (LV)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 9.50 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 9.92 9.53 9.59 9.64 9.69 9.74 9.80
Change (pp)   -0.17 +0.19 +0.24 -0.01 +0.14 +0.40
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
University of Latvia

Lithuania (LT)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 8.50 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 8.99 8.58 8.65 8.72 8.82 8.94 9.06
Change (pp)   +0.68 +0.55 +0.62 +1.02 +1.44 +1.76
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Bank of Lithuania

Luxembourg (LU)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 5.90 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 6.20 5.91 5.90 5.88 5.88 5.87 5.87
Change (pp)   -0.39 -0.10 +0.08 -0.22 -0.13 -0.33
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Eurostat

Malta (MT)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 4.00 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 3.93 4.04 4.07 4.10 4.14 4.18 4.20
Change (pp)   -0.86 -0.73 -0.80 -0.86 -0.72 -0.50
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Central Bank of Malta

Netherlands (NL)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 5.40 5.20 . . . . .
ETLAnow 5.63 5.43 5.23 5.25 5.27 5.28 5.29
Change (pp)     -0.97 -0.65 -0.53 -0.12 -0.41
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Statistics Netherlands CBS and
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis CPB

Poland (PL)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 5.60 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 5.77 5.58 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.59
Change (pp)   -0.82 -0.63 -0.43 -0.43 -0.43 -0.31
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research IBRKK

Portugal (PT)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 10.00 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 10.21 9.92 9.86 9.83 9.79 9.74 9.68
Change (pp)   -1.68 -1.14 -0.77 -0.71 -0.96 -1.12
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Nova School of Business and Economics and
Queen Mary, University of London and CEG-IST Lisbon

Romania (RO)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 5.50 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 5.82 5.59 5.65 5.69 5.78 5.81 5.88
Change (pp)   -0.41 -0.15 -0.01 +0.08 +0.21 +0.08
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy

Slovakia (SK)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 8.40 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 8.67 8.37 8.35 8.34 8.31 8.30 8.32
Change (pp)   -1.43 -1.25 -1.16 -1.19 -1.20 -1.18
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Institute of Economic Research SAV

Slovenia (SI)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 7.90 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 8.48 7.89 7.87 7.86 7.85 7.84 7.82
Change (pp)   -0.21 +0.07 +0.36 +0.45 +0.54 +0.52
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia SKEP

Spain (ES)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 18.70 . . . . . .
ETLAnow 18.42 18.54 18.42 18.33 18.26 18.19 18.12
Change (pp)   -2.06 -1.58 -1.07 -0.74 -0.71 -0.78
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Economic Forecasting Center CEPREDE

Sweden (SE)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official 6.80 7.20 . . . . .
ETLAnow 7.49 7.01 7.34 7.42 7.02 6.90 6.65
Change (pp)     -0.26 -0.18 +0.72 +0.30 +0.55
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
Konjunkturinstitutet

United Kingdom (UK)

Unemployment rate (%) 3/2017 4/2017 5/2017 6/2017 7/2017 8/2017 9/2017
Official . . . . . . .
ETLAnow 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.49 4.49 4.47
Change (pp) -0.40 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.51 -0.41 -0.43
Date: 26.6.2017

Change (pp) = forecasted change from the previous year in percentage points.
. = official data not available
Last update 26.6.2017.
Next update 27.6.2017.
Next official release on the unemployment rate 3.6.2017.
Export ETLAnow forecasts for this table or all ETLAnow forecasts.
Explore the Google search terms.
In collaboration with:
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research NIESR

ETLAnow is fully automatic and ETLA does not make any modifications to its forecasts prior to publication. Simulated historical data for the forecasts are available for download from links below the tables. These data estimates what predictions ETLAnow would have done since 2004, if it were in use. Ultimately, we can evaluate the accuracy of the ETLAnow forecasts every month when new official data become available. From May 2016 reported previous forecasts are those released prior the official data was available. ETLAnow model is an autoregressive model extended with Google data and it uses harmonized and non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. More details are available in the ETLAnow report.

Potential errors or other observations can be reported to etlanow@etla.fi.

Copyright: All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.