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We participate in a research consortium, the aim of which is to study the prospects of goods and person traffic between Finland and Russia until 2030. The consortium is led by VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland). ETLAs contribution in the project will be to prepare the macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios that work as inputs for the traffic forecasts and scenarios. We produce a baseline forecast for the world economy, and especially for Finland and Russia. In addition to that, we construct four alternative scenarios, where the variables are: the price of energy and technical development in Russia (productivity growth). When preparing these scenarios, we use the world economy model NiGEM. The model produces five consistent scenarios for the world economy and for individual countries. For each macro scenario, we will produce sectoral scenarios, which work as inputs in the traffic models. The goods traffic model Frisbee (used by SITO consulting firm) will then optimize the transport vehicle and the routes used.
Financing: Ministry for Traffic and Communication.
Researchers: Researcher Paavo Suni, Research Advisor Olavi Rantala and Research Director Markku Kotilainen
