Etla » Russia

Determinants for Foreign Direct Investment in the Baltic Sea Region

Markku Kotilainen — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:14:21 +0000

Abstract: We have defined the Baltic Sea Region as consisting of the following countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and Russia. We investigate foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from 1995 to 2010 to these countries econometrically. We use two basic models: the first one treats aggregate FDI inflows by countries, and the second focuses on bilateral FDI flows between country pairs. Because of limitations in data availability, the second model is built for a smaller group of countries. In this model we take into account the origin country of the FDI. Our results show that macroeconomic factors such as corporate taxes are important determinants for FDI flows. We notice that these factors and their effects vary between the Baltic Sea Region countries. Foreign trade with the investing country is also a statistically significant determinant for FDI, i.e. the countries that have trade with each other also invest in each other. On the other hand distance between countries doesn’t explain FDI flows. Institutional factors such as EU membership or a common currency are not statistically significant in our estimations but this could be because of data limitations and because of the fact that these changes in countries’ international status are incorporated in the other variables and are also foreseen by the investors.

Regulation of Energy Prices in Russia

admin — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:00:00 +0000

Russia prices its energy commodities domestically much lower than the prices prevailing in the international market. Using a general equilibrium framework, we analyse reasons for why Russia should or should not use such a price regulation. First, being a major exporter of energy commodities and having considerable monopolistic market power, the country is able to use its supply in order to influence the international energy prices. A rational way to channel this rent to the domestic non-energy sector and to domestic consumers is through a lower, i.e., competitive, domestic price on energy than that in the world market. Second, we introduce the classic infant-industry argument with positive intertemporal spillovers through learning-by-doing linked to current production. These spill-overs are likely to be relevant for manufacturing in a transition economy, which argument creates a further reason for a deviation in the pricing of energy to domestic industrial producers from the world market prices. However, an empirical consideration of these results and the estimation of the learning-by-doing curve suggest that the first effect can in principle be sizeable, while the second is only marginal and that, overall, Russia is currently subsidising its domestic energy prices clearly too much. Further, we conclude that the country should not subsidise its domestic consumers more than its domestic industry, as it does in reality. We also derive the optimal domestic energy tax and show that it is modest in comparison to its current rate. The optimal pricing policy could therefore have a marked positive effect on the international supply of energy by Russia.

Free Trade between the EU and Russia – Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia

Ville Kaitila — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 11:00:00 +0000

We analyse the implications of free trade between the EU25 and Russia using GTAP, a computable general equilibrium model. We review the sectoral effects by countries and make a tentative assessment of the impact on the regions in Northwest Russia. Free trade on its own would have a negative terms-of-trade effect in Russia and cause a small decline in welfare. If coupled with an increase in productivity, welfare would increase. This emphasises the importance of reforms in the Russian economy. The quantity of production in Russia in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, machine building and metal working, and wood and paper are the principal declining sectors with free trade. Production in capital goods, fuel industry, and services increases. Thus there are some symptoms of Dutch disease. Due to its production structure the northwest would seem to benefit slightly less than Russia on average in terms of the volume of gross regional product. In this respect there are differences between the regions of northwest Russia.

Determinants of Finnish-Russian Economic Relations

admin — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 11:00:00 +0000

The broad context of the study is the main determinants of Finnish-Russian economic relations during the post-Soviet era and the prospects for the future. The study explores the determination of trade as well as foreign direct investment (FDI). The main emphasis is on the structure and development of foreign trade. When measured by the Grubel-Lloyd index of intra-industry trade (SITC3, 4-digit), it is seen that less than 3 per cent of Finnish-Russian trade occurred inside the same industry in 2004. This percentage has even declined slightly during the period studied. In Finlands trade with Germany, the corresponding figure was 31 per cent and in trade with Sweden 47 per cent in 2004. When assessing the development of Finnish imports from Russia, we notice that the dominance of changes in oil prices and of imports of big companies does not allow sensible econometric explanations. In the case of Finnish exports to Russia we find econometric evidence on volumes and values, on aggregate and sectoral, and on annual and quarterly exports. We present several kinds of classifications of FDI, and ask which factors favour exports and which FDI. We also classify the investments of Finnish firms in Russia according to these criteria in a very illustrative and preliminary way. Exports as well as FDI have profited from the high market growth and rapid structural change of the Russian economy.

Russian Infrastructure Clusters : A Preliminary Study

admin — Mon, 04 Apr 2005 11:00:00 +0000

Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

admin — Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:00:00 +0000

ESCO Companies in Northwest Russia, Legal Issues and Organizational Schemes

admin — Mon, 31 May 2004 11:00:00 +0000

Prospects of Economic Relations Between Finland and Russia (in Finnish with English abstract and summary).

admin — Mon, 08 Dec 2003 11:00:00 +0000

First, the current situation of the economic relations between Finland and Russia is described. Then the effects of future changes in Russia and its consequences for foreign relations are analysed. Key institutional changes under consideration are the enlargement of the EU, Russias likely membership in the WTO, the future economic agreements between the EU and Russia, and globalisation at the firm level. Prospects of economic relations up to 2010 are analysed extensively. The following themes are under consideration : Russias economic development, the potential of foreign trade between Finland and Russia, and the prospects of imports, exports and direct investment. Finally, the effects of the changes on Finnish firms are evaluated, as well as the risks related to economic developments in Russia.